...no data
...no model
...just a guess
Hillary Clinton
Why? Well, all the party unity stuff, of course. But also, since she's generally not on many of the beltway lists, picking her would be a bold and unexpected move. And despite her long tenure as First Lady and Senator, the ticket would "look" more like a "change" ticket than one with Biden/Kane/Bayh at the number two spot. Of course, Obama/Sebelius would accomplish that as well (no, I'm not hedging--unless of course he picks Sebelius).
I'm very familiar with all the reasons for not picking Clinton, but I think there's a huge upside as well.
I'll also go out on a limb and predict that the pick will be announced just prior to prime time news broadcasts tomorrow (Wednesday). Okay, maybe Thursday (hedge). Waiting any longer would be silly.
Feel free to leave your pick in the comments section.
I recently (February, 2008) gave a presentation on the 2008 election to a community group and had a bunch of data left over, so I decided to post it here. I'll try to provide updates and other pieces of data-based information as the campaign proceeds. I will gladly post links to data gathered by others as well, so let me know if you see something interesting or if you want to post something yourself.
Electoral vote: Obama 349, McCain 189 ; National popular vote: Obama 53.9%, McCain 46.1%
Click on the map for more details and better resolution
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About Me
- Tom
- Professor of political science at the University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee
4 comments:
You are one crrraaazy dude!
I don't have a pick, but I just can't see a smart guy like Obama picking Hillary when it means getting Bill in the bargain.
I just don't see Bill as a campaign asset.
Of course, I'm wrong about this stuff all the time.
OK, I'll go out on a limb and suggest Chris Dodd.
I think Barack Obama (Dem-IL) should pick his former rival in the Democratic presidential primaries and caucuses, Hillary Clinton (Dem-NY), to be his vice-presidential running mate. Not only will they make history together as the first black and first woman elected to the presidency and vice-presidency, respectively, but also as the first "gay" president and first "lesbian" vice-president in the process. Such "homosexual" Democratic ticket will be perfect and unstoppable! Just think about it!
Great blog, thanks for posting
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