Wednesday, August 27, 2008

McCain Bump Prediction

Based on the analysis presented here, my prediction for John McCain's convention bump is 1.4 percentage points. Based on the way I measure bumps, McCain's share of the two-party vote in trial-heat polls conducted during the week after the convention should be just 1.4 points higher than it is now. The primary reason for this small prediction is that McCain is currently running ahead of where he "should" be and, hence, is unlikely to gain much more ground.

Right now, there is no sign of a convention bump for Obama, though it is still too early to tell. I'll provide a recap of both candidates' convention bumps in a couple of weeks.


jobeek2 said...

Well. That prediction didnt work out too well, did it. :-(

Tom said...

Yes, and no. See today's post.