Forecasting Update

With almost all of the votes (95%) counted in Oregon it is pretty clear that the yesterday's outcomes did not deviate much from what was expected based on pre-primary polling data. The table below summarizes the accuracy of my pre-primary forecasts, which were based on the polling trends at Pollster.com

	Clinton Percent of the Two-Candidate Vote
	Forecast Vote	Actual Vote	Forecast- Actual
Kentucky	68.2%	68.6%	-.4 points
Oregon	43.5%	41.3%	2.2 points

The model nailed the Kentucky outcome and over-predicted Clinton's Oregon vote by 2.2 percentage points.