Monday, May 19, 2008

KY and OR Forecasts

I've got jury duty in the morning so I'm posting my Kentucky and Oregon forecasts now based on the 5/19 poll trend summary from . These forecasts are based on estimates generated from the same forecasting model used before, but updated to include data from North Carolina and Indiana.

The projected percent of the the two-candidate vote going to Clinton is:

Kentucky 68.2%

Oregon 43.5%

The model missed Indiana and North Carolina by 2.1 and 4.0 points, respectively, so it will be interesting to see how it does tomorrow.

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