Tuesday, November 4, 2008

Final Forecasts

The table below summarizes various models I've worked with this fall, as well as the projections of two of my undergraduate classes. All of these projections point to a big night for Obama. I have the most confidence in the Electoral College forecast from the October model, and I expect the (two-party) popular vote to come in somewhere between the October model (53.9%) and my PS/APSA model (55.7%).

It's interesting to note that both of my undergraduate classes independently came to the same conclusion: Obama 228 electoral votes, to McCain's 200. Their electoral maps are exactly the same as Karl Rove's map.

10 comments:

Cindy Kilkenny said...

Congratulations on the success of the model. While the October version still underestimated the total number of electoral votes that Obama won, it was still closer than the other models shown.

Sigh. I should have show up for your elections class this semester...

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