Saturday, March 15, 2008

Are White Voters Rallying for Hillary?

Josh Marshall has a post in which he responds to some recent chatter about whether Obama is doing increasingly worse among white voters. It's a busy weekend but I thought I would take a few minutes and bring some additional data to bear on this topic.

The data posted below follow up on my earlier posts on "gaps" in the Democratic primary electorate. First, let's look at the voting patterns among white voters across the states, ordered by date of primary.

Is there anything here to suggest that whites are rallying around Clinton? To paraphrase my man, Jeeves, "it would not appear to present itself as such." There is a bit of jumping around but there is no clear temporal pattern (remember,the states are ordered by date of primary or caucus).

The figure below breaks the data down by broader time periods.

There is still no evidence of a recent change in the voting patterns of white voters. About all you can say based on these data is that Clinton has done somewhat better among white voters in states holding contests on or after super Tuesday than in earlier states. But that's about it.

No comments: